These rating actions follow the recent announcement by Swiss Re that it expects to report a net loss for the full year 2008 of around CHF1bn and a reduction in shareholders' equity by 17-21% compared to Q3 2008. These results will rapidly accelerate the deterioration in key financial metrics that had already occurred during the course of 2008 and had led to the assignment of a negative outlook to Swiss Re's long-term ratings in November 2008, Moody's said. The review for possible further downgrade reflects concerns over whether the Group's future credit profile is likely to remain consistent with the expectations for an Aa-rated entity.
Moody's said that Swiss Re's earnings for 2008 will contrast poorly with a number of reinsurance peers, notwithstanding the good performance from its core reinsurance activities with an expected full year P&C combined ratio of 97.4% (95.6% excluding unwind of discount) and a Life & Health benefit ratio for the full year of approximately 85.5%. The estimated reduction in shareholders' equity during 2008 has led to a meaningful reduction in capital surplus, although the Group's economic capital adequacy ratio is above the Group's target range of 175-200%. Key capital, profitability and financial flexibility metrics have deteriorated meaningfully when compared to 2007.
Moody's notes the Group's proposed capital preservation and capital raising measures including the payment of only a nominal dividend, a CHF3bn investment by Berkshire Hathaway via a convertible perpetual capital instrument, and a potential up to CHF2bn rights issue. However, the potential remains for further capital erosion in light of the nature of Swiss Re's investment and legacy portfolios, the latter containing non-core activities which have been discontinued including structured credit default swaps and trading activities written within the former Financial Products division.
In addition to prospective capital adequacy, profitability, financial flexibility, and liquidity, the rating review will consider the likely impact of the Group's financial results on its future market position and franchise strength. In the event of a downgrade, the rating agency said that it does not currently believe that the rating movement would likely be greater than one notch."
Source: Moody's